by Walter Molony
WASHINGTON (October 25, 2012) – Pending home sales were little changed in September but remain well above a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, edged up 0.3 percent to 99.5 in September from 99.2 in August and is 14.5 percent above September 2011 when it was 86.9. The data reflect contracts but not closings.
Lawrence Yun , NAR chief economist, said pending home sales continue to hold a higher ground. “Home contract activity remains at an elevated level in contrast with recent years, but currently appears to be bouncing around in a narrow range,” Yun said. “This means only minor movement is likely in near-term existing-home sales, but with positive underlying market fundamentals they should continue on an uptrend in 2013.”
Pending home sales have risen for 17 consecutive months on a year-over-year basis, leading to the solid recovery seen in closed existing-home sales this year. In September all regions were showing double-digit increases in contract activity from a year ago with the exception of the West, which is constrained by limited inventory.
The PHSI in the West, the index rose 4.3 percent in September to 106.9, but is only 0.8 percent above September 2011.
Housing affordability conditions are forecast to remain favorable through next year, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage staying near record lows for the balance of this year but gradually rising to 4 percent in the second half of 2013.
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Buyer Review: Impressed With Her Negotiation Skills
DeVonna has a can do attitude that kept us in the game and helped us get our dream home.
Thanks DeVonna!!!
Chip and Mina Reynolds
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Mortgage Rate Outlook
Oct 5, 2012 — Even though some of the economic news was a little warmer this week, mortgage rates continued their downward drive. However, the decline this week was more muted than last week’s, and with the cumulative benefit of the Fed’s “QEternity” program of purchasing Mortgage-Backed Securities closing in on a quarter-percentage point, we may not have all that much room for rates yet to fall at the moment.
HSH.com’s broad-market mortgage tracker found the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages declined by just two basis points (0.02%) to 3.68%, a new record low, while the FRMI’s 15-year companion shed three basis points to land at a new record low of an even 3%. FHA-backed 30-year FRMs downshifted by just a single basis basis point, as the most viable option for credit- or equity-impaired borrowers trickled to a new low of 3.28%. Finally, the overall average rate for 5/1 Hybrid ARMs held fast at 2.70% for a third consecutive week, remaining at a record low.
The Fed’s program of manipulating mortgage prices is a two-edged sword, or at least a Catch-22. The Fed wants to see more economic growth, so it pushes mortgage rates down to help foster growth. If the economy is improving or does start to improve, the Fed will need to do less to achieve its goals, and mortgage rates would tend to rise with the improving climate… which in turn might temper growth. What to cheer for? Broad-based economic gains which take the Fed out of the picture, letting markets again discover the true price of mortgages? Or to root for interest rates to remain at artificially low levels, so that more homeowners can profitably refinance, or to see home prices reflated though the inducement of affordability-driven sales?
At some point, and for some time thereafter, we are likely to see both. How long such conditions — a rising economy with rock-bottom rates — might last is anyone’s guess at this point. The Fed has pledged to keep its foot on the gas even after the economy gets more fully underway, but that strikes us as a nervous time in the markets, indeed.
It would appear that the decline in rates has softened, at least for the moment. When the Fed announced its program, we reckoned it might have a value of a quarter-percentage point on rates given current conditions, and we’ll stand by that assessment for at least the moment. That being the case, and since much of that expected decline is now in place, we’ll call for rates to be about unchanged next week.
HSH.com’s broad-market mortgage tracker found the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages declined by just two basis points (0.02%) to 3.68%, a new record low, while the FRMI’s 15-year companion shed three basis points to land at a new record low of an even 3%. FHA-backed 30-year FRMs downshifted by just a single basis basis point, as the most viable option for credit- or equity-impaired borrowers trickled to a new low of 3.28%. Finally, the overall average rate for 5/1 Hybrid ARMs held fast at 2.70% for a third consecutive week, remaining at a record low.
The Fed’s program of manipulating mortgage prices is a two-edged sword, or at least a Catch-22. The Fed wants to see more economic growth, so it pushes mortgage rates down to help foster growth. If the economy is improving or does start to improve, the Fed will need to do less to achieve its goals, and mortgage rates would tend to rise with the improving climate… which in turn might temper growth. What to cheer for? Broad-based economic gains which take the Fed out of the picture, letting markets again discover the true price of mortgages? Or to root for interest rates to remain at artificially low levels, so that more homeowners can profitably refinance, or to see home prices reflated though the inducement of affordability-driven sales?
At some point, and for some time thereafter, we are likely to see both. How long such conditions — a rising economy with rock-bottom rates — might last is anyone’s guess at this point. The Fed has pledged to keep its foot on the gas even after the economy gets more fully underway, but that strikes us as a nervous time in the markets, indeed.
It would appear that the decline in rates has softened, at least for the moment. When the Fed announced its program, we reckoned it might have a value of a quarter-percentage point on rates given current conditions, and we’ll stand by that assessment for at least the moment. That being the case, and since much of that expected decline is now in place, we’ll call for rates to be about unchanged next week.
Monday, October 15, 2012
SEPTEMBER MARKET STATISTICS
Home inventory was off 32.6% from last September.
The median price for homes rose 19.1% year-over-year. The median price has been higher than the year before for the past eight months. The sales price to list price ratio has been over 100% for the past seven months.
The average price for homes was up 18.6% year-over-year.
Pending home sales were up 8.7% year-over-year.
Where Have All the Sellers Gone?
Followers of the market report know inventory in Santa Clara County has been at or near record lows for the past year.
This has had a salubrious effect on prices. The median price for single-family, re-sale homes is up 29% year-to-date.
The 3-month moving average median price is up 51% from the bottom of the market: March 2009.
Where are all the Sellers?
Which brings us back to the question, “where are all the sellers?”
It’s pointless to read the national press on market conditions in Silicon Valley. They don’t apply!
There is no “massive shadow inventory”. There are no investors buying foreclosed properties in bulk.
With the economy as strong as it is here, people have jobs, so they’re staying put. Retirees are also staying put to be near their families.
Low Inventory Explanation
The only other explanation for low inventory is homeowners who are underwater. Yet, Santa Clara County has the lowest percentage of underwater owners in the state, about 25% according to DataQuick.
So, for the foreseeable future, we will have rising prices fueled by lack of inventory and multiple offers.
With money at an all-time low, and property prices still about 22% below their peak in 2007, those who have cash or can get a loan are in prime position to make a purchase.
Morgan Hill Housing Market and Options
If you would like to discuss the Morgan Hill housing market and your options, please give DeVonna Meyer a call today at (408) 981-4079.
Friday, October 12, 2012
Near Or Far, ALWAYS Use A Local Realtor
How Micro-Markets add to the dynamic of home pricing.
Our nation has trends as a whole, and trends within geographic locations. California certainly has micro-markets.
But our local markets also have sub markets; some even within the very same development.
Why does this matter to you?
Well whether you’re buying in Brentwood, Moragn Hill, or Timbuktu, you could lose a fortune if your agent doesn’t have intimate knowledge of the market that you’re buying or selling in. I strongly recommend doing your homework and finding a Realtor you trust with local area expertise.
Home prices are a function of the following variables:
•Demand or number of buyers with the ability and willingness to buy.
•The supply of properties on the market, including homes that our builders are selling prior to completed construction
•Interest rates – If a buyer can afford $2,000/mo….@ 3.5% interest, he/she may be able to purchase a home for $375k,
but if interest rates go up to 5.5% the purchase price would have to drop to $290k or so.
•Speculated future values of specific properties and real estate in general
•Consumer Confidence Level
•Other less impacting factors
Let’s compare two properties:
They are both in Brentwood, Both +/- 3,800 square feet, both 4 bedrooms, built in the mid 2000′s. Lot sizes are within 20% of each other. Both WERE in highly sought after areas, but one area “held on” better than the other, for very real reasons. An agent looking at these two properties might think that the discrepancy is not valid. That misinformation can and will cost you…one way or another.
Looking at two properties, you’ll see the same thing.
Similar homes, but the one with only two bedrooms is listed $90,000 higher than the 3 bedroom? In this area, and in virtually all areas throughout the world, this is common. These local market tendencies and trends will often differentiate home values for something as seeminly benign as being on opposite sides of the same street!
Using a local area expert that you can depend on is your best bet, whether you’re looking to buy or sell.
Contact DeVonna Meyer, your local Morgan Hill/Gilroy area expert, by calling (408) 981-4079 today!
Our nation has trends as a whole, and trends within geographic locations. California certainly has micro-markets.
But our local markets also have sub markets; some even within the very same development.
Why does this matter to you?
Well whether you’re buying in Brentwood, Moragn Hill, or Timbuktu, you could lose a fortune if your agent doesn’t have intimate knowledge of the market that you’re buying or selling in. I strongly recommend doing your homework and finding a Realtor you trust with local area expertise.
Home prices are a function of the following variables:
•Demand or number of buyers with the ability and willingness to buy.
•The supply of properties on the market, including homes that our builders are selling prior to completed construction
•Interest rates – If a buyer can afford $2,000/mo….@ 3.5% interest, he/she may be able to purchase a home for $375k,
but if interest rates go up to 5.5% the purchase price would have to drop to $290k or so.
•Speculated future values of specific properties and real estate in general
•Consumer Confidence Level
•Other less impacting factors
Let’s compare two properties:
They are both in Brentwood, Both +/- 3,800 square feet, both 4 bedrooms, built in the mid 2000′s. Lot sizes are within 20% of each other. Both WERE in highly sought after areas, but one area “held on” better than the other, for very real reasons. An agent looking at these two properties might think that the discrepancy is not valid. That misinformation can and will cost you…one way or another.
Looking at two properties, you’ll see the same thing.
Similar homes, but the one with only two bedrooms is listed $90,000 higher than the 3 bedroom? In this area, and in virtually all areas throughout the world, this is common. These local market tendencies and trends will often differentiate home values for something as seeminly benign as being on opposite sides of the same street!
Using a local area expert that you can depend on is your best bet, whether you’re looking to buy or sell.
Contact DeVonna Meyer, your local Morgan Hill/Gilroy area expert, by calling (408) 981-4079 today!
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
California Home Sales Up 6.7% in September
By Alejandro Lazo, Los Angeles Times
Bargain hunters snap up foreclosures, and the median home price continues to fall.
California home sales
picked up in September from the same month last year as prices came down.
Sales were up
6.7% as bargain hunters paying cash snapped up foreclosures. Sales figures remained below the average for September in Southern California and the Bay Area, according to DataQuick, a real estate information service based in San Diego. As is typical, sales were lower than in August, down 6.2%, for a total of 35,404 homes sold last month.
The median price
for a home sold in California in September was $249,000, down 6% from a year earlier and the same as in August. That makes for the 12th consecutive year-over-year monthly decrease in the median, which is the point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less.
John Walsh, DataQuick president, said the pool of potential buyers was growing, even though that demand has not yet shown up in the numbers.
“Empty-nesters want something smaller, growing families want something bigger,” he said. “People still die, they get married, retire — all of this generates demand. And only a fraction of that demand is being met in today’s market.”
Foreclosures
still accounted for a big chunk of the state’s housing market last month, as did short sales — transactions in which the bank allows a property to be sold for less than the value of the debt on the home. More than half the previously owned homes that sold in California last month were either foreclosures or short sales.
About 33.8% were foreclosures, down from a revised 34.3% in August and 35.6% in September 2010. Short sales made up 18.7% of the market, up from 17.5% in August and 15.6% in September 2010.
In the Bay Area,
sales were up 6.6% from the same month a year ago and down 10.2% from August, to 6,749. The median price for the region fell 7.6% from the same month a year earlier and was down 1.4% from August, at $365,000.
If you would like to discuss your real estate options, don’t hesitate to give DeVonna Meyer a call today at (408) 981-4079.
Bargain hunters snap up foreclosures, and the median home price continues to fall.
California home sales
picked up in September from the same month last year as prices came down.
Sales were up
6.7% as bargain hunters paying cash snapped up foreclosures. Sales figures remained below the average for September in Southern California and the Bay Area, according to DataQuick, a real estate information service based in San Diego. As is typical, sales were lower than in August, down 6.2%, for a total of 35,404 homes sold last month.
The median price
for a home sold in California in September was $249,000, down 6% from a year earlier and the same as in August. That makes for the 12th consecutive year-over-year monthly decrease in the median, which is the point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less.
John Walsh, DataQuick president, said the pool of potential buyers was growing, even though that demand has not yet shown up in the numbers.
“Empty-nesters want something smaller, growing families want something bigger,” he said. “People still die, they get married, retire — all of this generates demand. And only a fraction of that demand is being met in today’s market.”
Foreclosures
still accounted for a big chunk of the state’s housing market last month, as did short sales — transactions in which the bank allows a property to be sold for less than the value of the debt on the home. More than half the previously owned homes that sold in California last month were either foreclosures or short sales.
About 33.8% were foreclosures, down from a revised 34.3% in August and 35.6% in September 2010. Short sales made up 18.7% of the market, up from 17.5% in August and 15.6% in September 2010.
In the Bay Area,
sales were up 6.6% from the same month a year ago and down 10.2% from August, to 6,749. The median price for the region fell 7.6% from the same month a year earlier and was down 1.4% from August, at $365,000.
If you would like to discuss your real estate options, don’t hesitate to give DeVonna Meyer a call today at (408) 981-4079.
Coldwell Banker Names Top 100 Performing Agents
Did you know that DeVonna Meyer was just listed on Coldwell Banker’s Top 100 Performing Agents in the Monterey Bay Area?
Mortgage Rates Trimmed
Mortgage rates trimmed some of their recent rise last month. Economic news continues to be tepid, although somewhat better in tenor than that seen over the last few months.
In a speech before the monetary conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chairman Bernanke reiterated the Federal Reserve stands ready to adjust policy to foster stronger economic growth. The message was exactly the one the Fed has been using for a while, but since the Chairman himself uttered it, some analysts believe there is an increased likelihood the Fed will embark on a new program to stimulate the economy before too long. As far as mortgage rates go, they could hardly be better, anyway.
California Home Sales Up 6.7% in September
By Alejandro Lazo, Los Angeles Times
Bargain hunters snap up foreclosures, and the median home price continues to fall.
California home sales picked up in September from the same month last year as prices came down.
Sales were up 6.7% as bargain hunters paying cash snapped up foreclosures. Sales figures remained below the average for September in Southern California and the Bay Area, according to DataQuick, a real estate information service based in San Diego. As is typical, sales were lower than in August, down 6.2%, for a total of 35,404 homes sold last month.
The median price for a home sold in California in September was $249,000, down 6% from a year earlier and the same as in August. That makes for the 12th consecutive year-over-year monthly decrease in the median, which is the point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less.
John Walsh, DataQuick president, said the pool of potential buyers was growing, even though that demand has not yet shown up in the numbers.
"Empty-nesters want something smaller, growing families want something bigger," he said. "People still die, they get married, retire — all of this generates demand. And only a fraction of that demand is being met in today's market."
Foreclosures still accounted for a big chunk of the state's housing market last month, as did short sales — transactions in which the bank allows a property to be sold for less than the value of the debt on the home. More than half the previously owned homes that sold in California last month were either foreclosures or short sales.
About 33.8% were foreclosures, down from a revised 34.3% in August and 35.6% in September 2010. Short sales made up 18.7% of the market, up from 17.5% in August and 15.6% in September 2010.
In the Bay Area, sales were up 6.6% from the same month a year ago and down 10.2% from August, to 6,749. The median price for the region fell 7.6% from the same month a year earlier and was down 1.4% from August, at $365,000.
If you would like to discuss your real estate options, don't hesitate to give DeVonna Meyer a call today at (408) 981-4079.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
