by Julie Schmit
USA Today
Major real estate investors are buying fewer homes in some hot markets while expanding in others as they race against rising prices to turn more distressed homes into rentals.
Investor interest may be close to peaking in some California markets where prices have risen sharply because higher acquisition prices cut finacial returns, said John Burns, CEO of Burns Real Estate Consulting.
Foreclosures
Home shoppers are now seeing the multiple offers, bidding wars and shrinking supplies of homes for sale as investors swooped in.
Major institutional investors are amassing a $10 billion pool of money to pursue the single-family rental market, JPMorgan Chase estimated in a recent research report.
They're betting that they can get distressed homes on the cheap, fix them up and rent them out, often to families who lost homes to foreclosure, and make money on home price appreciation in a few years.
The companies generally seek three-bedroom, two-bath homes in the $100,000 to $125,000 range that can rent for more than $1,000 a month, analysts say.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
December Market Statistics
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes ended the year off 0.4% year-over-year in December.
Home inventory continues to be abysmal. It was off 77.2% from last December.
The median price for homes jumped 28.8% year-over-year. The median price has been higher than the year before for the past eleven months. The sales price to list price ratio has been over 100% for the past ten months: 102.6%.
The average price for homes was up 27.2% year-over-year.
Pending home sales were down 29.8% year-over-year, portending a slow start to 2013.
Sales momentum…
for homes rose 0.6 of a point to +4.6.
Pricing momentum…
has been on the up-swing the past ten months. It rose 2.1 points to +11.3.
Condo Statistics…
The median price for condos was up 32.3% year-over-year. That’s ten straight months of double-digit gains.
Sales were off 19.5%, while pending sales fell 36.4%.
Condo inventory was down 85.8% from last December.
BIG MILESTONES FOR THE FORECLOSURE MARKETPLACE
On November 26, 2012, ForeclosureRadar recorded its millionth California
foreclosure sale since we began collecting the data in January 2007.
While the foreclosure process can be painful and unpleasant, this milestone also means a million underwater homeowners have escaped a prison of debt.
In addition, the California real estate market has made real progress towards eliminating some of the trillions of dollars in excess mortgage debt accumulated nationally during the bubble years. Rather than being the problem, foreclosures are part of the solution and have helped the California housing market make steady strides toward recovery.
While the foreclosure process can be painful and unpleasant, this milestone also means a million underwater homeowners have escaped a prison of debt.
In addition, the California real estate market has made real progress towards eliminating some of the trillions of dollars in excess mortgage debt accumulated nationally during the bubble years. Rather than being the problem, foreclosures are part of the solution and have helped the California housing market make steady strides toward recovery.
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
Coldwell Banker’s International President’s Circle
DeVonna Meyer recently earned her designation into Coldwell Banker’s International President’s Circle for her production achievement in 2012.
“She is devoted to her profession and demonstrates a work ethic second to none.”
-John Agresta
Coldwell Banker Office Manager
Senate ‘Cliff’ Bill Retains Mortgage Cancellation Relief
January 1, 2013,
by Robert Freedman
President Barack Obama has signed the agreement into law that tax rates would remain the same for most households and mortgage cancellation relief is extended in a budget package passed by the U.S. Senate to avert the so-called fiscal cliff.
The “American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012’’ passed on a bipartisan 89-9 vote in the middle of the night and extends current tax rates for all households earning less than $450,000, and $400,000 for individual filers.
For households earning above these limits, tax rates would revert to where they were in 2003, when taxes were reduced across the board. That means taxpayers in the highest bracket would pay taxes on ordinary income at a rate of 39.6 percent, up from 35 percent.
by Robert Freedman
President Barack Obama has signed the agreement into law that tax rates would remain the same for most households and mortgage cancellation relief is extended in a budget package passed by the U.S. Senate to avert the so-called fiscal cliff.
The “American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012’’ passed on a bipartisan 89-9 vote in the middle of the night and extends current tax rates for all households earning less than $450,000, and $400,000 for individual filers.
For households earning above these limits, tax rates would revert to where they were in 2003, when taxes were reduced across the board. That means taxpayers in the highest bracket would pay taxes on ordinary income at a rate of 39.6 percent, up from 35 percent.
Thursday, January 10, 2013
Santa Clara County Foreclosures
Morgan Hill Housing Data
Median House Value: $673,400
Average Age: 28
Owner-Occupied: 76%
Median Rent: $1,401
Single Family: 76%
2-4 Units: 6%
5+ Units: 8%
Morgan Hill, California foreclosure listings from November, 2011 to November, 2012.
Foreclosure Filings—Notice of Default filings are the first step in the foreclosure process.
Median House Value: $673,400
Average Age: 28
Owner-Occupied: 76%
Median Rent: $1,401
Single Family: 76%
2-4 Units: 6%
5+ Units: 8%
Morgan Hill, California foreclosure listings from November, 2011 to November, 2012.
Foreclosure Filings—Notice of Default filings are the first step in the foreclosure process.
California Foreclosure Inventory Continues to Decline
November 2012 California foreclosure inventory—the total of Preforeclosures, properties in foreclosure that are Scheduled for Sale, and Bank Owned properties (REO)—fell 7.6 percent from the prior month and is down 31.8 percent compared to last year. While the November decline in inventory is not an unusual event, the significant decline in foreclosure inventory over the past year has contributed to what some are calling an “inventory crisis” of total homes for sale.
The November foreclosure inventory shortage is partially due to the jump in California Foreclosure Cancellations. Cancellations were up 4.7 percent from the prior month, up 69.9 percent in the past two months and up 34.7 percent compared to last year. In taking a closer look at the reason for cancellations, it did not appear the majority were due to statutory time frames or filing errors, but were more likely due to short sales or successful loan modifications.
The November foreclosure inventory shortage is partially due to the jump in California Foreclosure Cancellations. Cancellations were up 4.7 percent from the prior month, up 69.9 percent in the past two months and up 34.7 percent compared to last year. In taking a closer look at the reason for cancellations, it did not appear the majority were due to statutory time frames or filing errors, but were more likely due to short sales or successful loan modifications.
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
Promising Signs for More Improvement in Housing Market in 2013
by Rick Turley
President, San Francisco Bay Area
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
Happy New Year!
The housing market, both in the Bay Area and across the country, certainly showed impressive gains in 2012 with sales and median sale prices up in most markets and distressed sales and foreclosures down. In fact, the biggest challenge many of our local markets faced last year was not having enough homes to sell in order to satisfy the growing demand from buyers. How far we’ve come in just a few short years!
As we kick off 2013, there are a number of positive signs out there that the momentum we saw last year will only accelerate in the new year. Many widely followed industry analysts believe we will see gains in sales, prices and new home construction this year from coast to coast.
National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun believes the steady housing market recovery will continue over the next several years, barring further tightening of mortgage credit availability.
Yun reports that, “Existing-home sales, new-home sales and housing starts are all recording notable gains this year in contrast with suppressed activity in the previous four years, and all of the major home price measures are showing sustained increases.”
While mortgage rates have been at historic lows, Yun expects these rates to rise to an average of about 4.0 percent this year and 4.6 percent in 2014.
With rising demand and shrinking inventory, NAR foresees “meaningfully” higher home prices. The organization estimates that the national median existing-home price rose 6 percent last year, and predicts it will increase another 5.1 percent in 2013 with a similar increase in 2014.
NAR isn’t alone in its bullish forecast. According to the UCLA Anderson quarterly forecast released last month, the U.S. housing market should be a major driver for the nation’s economy over the next two years – a change from past years when housing trailed other sectors.
UCLA Anderson economists say that the U.S. housing market may have been late to the economic recovery, but it is now taking the lead. “With the recovery more than three years old…housing is gaining strength,” said UCLA Senior Economist David Shulman in his report, Beyond the Cliff. “In fact, the late arrival of the traditionally early pickup in the housing market has become the leading source of strength.”
So where does all this leave us? While no one can say for certain what the future holds, most signs point to the fact that the housing market will continue to see steady improvement. Interest rates remain near historic lows, and home prices are rising again. The economy is gaining strength, albeit not as predictable and solid as we’d like to see. And the job market continues its gradual acceleration.
Locally, this gives us a very optimistic outlook for 2013′s Bay Area housing market. It should be even more robust than 2012′s. The market has turned in a big way since the recession and there just aren’t enough listings to go around.
Sellers are getting good prices for their homes once again – in some cases, multiple offers over their asking price.
In San Francisco and the Peninsula, most of 2012 was challenged with 40% to 50% of the previous year’s inventory, even less in some communities; coupled with rising sales activity. Similar situation occurred in Silicon Valley, and Marin.
East Bay, Sonoma, Monterey and Santa Cruz counties had drastically low levels of entry level homes for sale all year long. Some areas in these counties had been hit hardest with distressed sales, and the recovery was most notably swift here, as it became very competitive to purchase a short sale or bank-owned property.
South County; Morgan Hill, Gilroy, and Hollister, it was all about the lack of inventory all year. Inventory levels there are lowest they’ve seen since 2005. Mid-year the higher end of the market in these counties saw improvement, with some substantial sales along the Coast, wine country, and in the East Bay. The Previews market was alive and well in San Francisco, the Peninsula, and Marin; which had some incredibly “record-high” sales in 2012.
The two most widely known axioms associated with real estate; Location, Location, Location – and Supply/Demand, have never been more important. If a homeowner is considering selling this year, the best advice may be, to not wait for other homeowners in the area to do the same. Now may be the perfect time list your home while the numbers are in your favor.
Below is a market-by-market report from our local offices. An interesting mix reported; some Holiday slow-down, coupled with a fair amount of last minute Fiscal-Cliff buying frenzy.
South County – Our Morgan Hill manager says the dual holiday season certainly slowed down real estate activity in the South Bay. Most buyers and sellers (and agents) took a well-deserved break from the frenzied pace of the current market. As 2013 begins, optimism remains strong and buyer demand continues to be strong for homes in all price ranges. Morgan Hill agents are working hard to acquire listings—as most are selling for over asking price with multiple offers.
Santa Cruz County – The December numbers reflect continued low inventory, hovering around 600 total homes on the market, down 26% from a year ago. Closed sales were up overall for 2012, over 20% and sales have exceeded the same months, one year earlier for well over a year. The unsold inventory index is the lowest since 2005, with only about 3 months supply of inventory currently available. The year ended with the median price around $500K and those sales under that price representing half the sales. It appears that we are digging ourselves out; there are definitely a lot more buyers than homes available, and we are expecting much of the same going forward this year.
Silicon Valley – In Cupertino, it has been very quiet, our local manager says. Agents are just now starting to show up again and get underway for the new year. The Los Gatos office said sales continued to pour in over the holidays and the upper end of the market gained strength. Our San Jose Willow Glen manager says the last two weeks of the year were fairly quiet with new listings. Many sellers seem to be waiting until the new year to put their homes on the market, many of our agents continue to have listing appointments and meeting with sellers to consult about timing as to when in 2013 to put their homes on the market. We have several new listings going “live’ on the MLS the first two weeks of Jan. The overall consensus is that the winter selling season will start well before the traditional “Super Bowl” weekend. The race was on to get all deals closed by the end of the year for those chasing the New Year deadline. Many agents also have a full pipeline of buyer’s ready, willing and able to buy so the hunt will be on right out of the gate of 2013. The inventory is incredibly low going into 2013 in the Saratoga area.
North Bay – Lack of inventory continues to generate multiple offers, according to our Petaluma manager. More than normal, agents are seeing sales transacted before they hit the market. Our Sebastopol manager notes that the holiday real estate market felt just like it did in the 90’s: buyers, sellers and agents all appear to have taken a winter vacation. Almost like a fiscal cliff, our Southern Marin manager says, agents were rushing around December 31st getting deals closed and handing over keys to happy buyers and checks to happy sellers. They made it! The rush of year-end activity was big and we closed the year in Marin with a bang. Still many unsatisfied buyers out there. With equity coming back, sellers should be looking at 2013 as a great time to re-enter the market.
San Francisco – The Lombard manager reports that the fiscal cliff drama helped create a lot of year-end closing frenzy. More deals closed but more gray hairs for agents. Sellers were “snug in their beds” making the market seem “all quiet on the western front,” our Market Street manager says. However, buyers squeezed house hunting in with their holiday preparations, and those few homes that were accepting offers were inundated (one modest home in the Excelsior district had given out 42 disclosures at the time of this update, and had 3 offers in hand days before the official offer date).
Our Sunset office manager noted that sales are down but it is not due to lack of buyer demand. It is due to lack of inventory. The very few listings that had open houses were extremely busy.
SF Peninsula — Peninsula wide the inventory is extremely low: 10 active in Burlingame, 25 in San Mateo, two in Millbrae and three in Foster City. The buyers are waiting, agents are seeking news of any “off market” listing and everyone is praying for something to show to their waiting buyers. There are 35 active and 12 pending sales currently in Hillsborough. This reflects a lower inventory from a typical market of 65 listings through most of 2012. There were a lot of last minute end of year sales. Many were rushed due to uncertainty about taxes in 2013. There are certainly high-end buyers waiting for the expected new listings to come forth. It seems that the spring market will definitely kick off earlier than in most years. In Menlo Park, the local office was amazingly busy until Christmas day. Lots of closings before year ‘tax hike” end. Everyone has more buyers than sellers. The Redwood City-San Carlos market has been very quiet over the holidays. Woodside and Portola Valley got pretty sleepy at the end of the year. Agents have more buyers than sellers in general – properties available over $6 million are numerous however. Some deals to be made in that over $6 million market.
East Bay – The Berkeley office reports steady showings throughout December and even during the holidays. Agents are still writing offers and securing listings for early 2013. In the Lamorinda area, sales have declined slightly as inventory is extremely low. Sellers seemed to have been waiting until after the holidays to list their homes. According to our Walnut Creek manager, inventory is still low. Some sellers are waiting on the new year to list their homes. Buyers are still doing non-contingent deals and cash is still prevalent in winning offers.
President, San Francisco Bay Area
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
Happy New Year!
The housing market, both in the Bay Area and across the country, certainly showed impressive gains in 2012 with sales and median sale prices up in most markets and distressed sales and foreclosures down. In fact, the biggest challenge many of our local markets faced last year was not having enough homes to sell in order to satisfy the growing demand from buyers. How far we’ve come in just a few short years!
As we kick off 2013, there are a number of positive signs out there that the momentum we saw last year will only accelerate in the new year. Many widely followed industry analysts believe we will see gains in sales, prices and new home construction this year from coast to coast.
National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun believes the steady housing market recovery will continue over the next several years, barring further tightening of mortgage credit availability.
Yun reports that, “Existing-home sales, new-home sales and housing starts are all recording notable gains this year in contrast with suppressed activity in the previous four years, and all of the major home price measures are showing sustained increases.”
While mortgage rates have been at historic lows, Yun expects these rates to rise to an average of about 4.0 percent this year and 4.6 percent in 2014.
With rising demand and shrinking inventory, NAR foresees “meaningfully” higher home prices. The organization estimates that the national median existing-home price rose 6 percent last year, and predicts it will increase another 5.1 percent in 2013 with a similar increase in 2014.
NAR isn’t alone in its bullish forecast. According to the UCLA Anderson quarterly forecast released last month, the U.S. housing market should be a major driver for the nation’s economy over the next two years – a change from past years when housing trailed other sectors.
UCLA Anderson economists say that the U.S. housing market may have been late to the economic recovery, but it is now taking the lead. “With the recovery more than three years old…housing is gaining strength,” said UCLA Senior Economist David Shulman in his report, Beyond the Cliff. “In fact, the late arrival of the traditionally early pickup in the housing market has become the leading source of strength.”
So where does all this leave us? While no one can say for certain what the future holds, most signs point to the fact that the housing market will continue to see steady improvement. Interest rates remain near historic lows, and home prices are rising again. The economy is gaining strength, albeit not as predictable and solid as we’d like to see. And the job market continues its gradual acceleration.
Locally, this gives us a very optimistic outlook for 2013′s Bay Area housing market. It should be even more robust than 2012′s. The market has turned in a big way since the recession and there just aren’t enough listings to go around.
Sellers are getting good prices for their homes once again – in some cases, multiple offers over their asking price.
In San Francisco and the Peninsula, most of 2012 was challenged with 40% to 50% of the previous year’s inventory, even less in some communities; coupled with rising sales activity. Similar situation occurred in Silicon Valley, and Marin.
East Bay, Sonoma, Monterey and Santa Cruz counties had drastically low levels of entry level homes for sale all year long. Some areas in these counties had been hit hardest with distressed sales, and the recovery was most notably swift here, as it became very competitive to purchase a short sale or bank-owned property.
South County; Morgan Hill, Gilroy, and Hollister, it was all about the lack of inventory all year. Inventory levels there are lowest they’ve seen since 2005. Mid-year the higher end of the market in these counties saw improvement, with some substantial sales along the Coast, wine country, and in the East Bay. The Previews market was alive and well in San Francisco, the Peninsula, and Marin; which had some incredibly “record-high” sales in 2012.
The two most widely known axioms associated with real estate; Location, Location, Location – and Supply/Demand, have never been more important. If a homeowner is considering selling this year, the best advice may be, to not wait for other homeowners in the area to do the same. Now may be the perfect time list your home while the numbers are in your favor.
Below is a market-by-market report from our local offices. An interesting mix reported; some Holiday slow-down, coupled with a fair amount of last minute Fiscal-Cliff buying frenzy.
South County – Our Morgan Hill manager says the dual holiday season certainly slowed down real estate activity in the South Bay. Most buyers and sellers (and agents) took a well-deserved break from the frenzied pace of the current market. As 2013 begins, optimism remains strong and buyer demand continues to be strong for homes in all price ranges. Morgan Hill agents are working hard to acquire listings—as most are selling for over asking price with multiple offers.
Santa Cruz County – The December numbers reflect continued low inventory, hovering around 600 total homes on the market, down 26% from a year ago. Closed sales were up overall for 2012, over 20% and sales have exceeded the same months, one year earlier for well over a year. The unsold inventory index is the lowest since 2005, with only about 3 months supply of inventory currently available. The year ended with the median price around $500K and those sales under that price representing half the sales. It appears that we are digging ourselves out; there are definitely a lot more buyers than homes available, and we are expecting much of the same going forward this year.
Silicon Valley – In Cupertino, it has been very quiet, our local manager says. Agents are just now starting to show up again and get underway for the new year. The Los Gatos office said sales continued to pour in over the holidays and the upper end of the market gained strength. Our San Jose Willow Glen manager says the last two weeks of the year were fairly quiet with new listings. Many sellers seem to be waiting until the new year to put their homes on the market, many of our agents continue to have listing appointments and meeting with sellers to consult about timing as to when in 2013 to put their homes on the market. We have several new listings going “live’ on the MLS the first two weeks of Jan. The overall consensus is that the winter selling season will start well before the traditional “Super Bowl” weekend. The race was on to get all deals closed by the end of the year for those chasing the New Year deadline. Many agents also have a full pipeline of buyer’s ready, willing and able to buy so the hunt will be on right out of the gate of 2013. The inventory is incredibly low going into 2013 in the Saratoga area.
North Bay – Lack of inventory continues to generate multiple offers, according to our Petaluma manager. More than normal, agents are seeing sales transacted before they hit the market. Our Sebastopol manager notes that the holiday real estate market felt just like it did in the 90’s: buyers, sellers and agents all appear to have taken a winter vacation. Almost like a fiscal cliff, our Southern Marin manager says, agents were rushing around December 31st getting deals closed and handing over keys to happy buyers and checks to happy sellers. They made it! The rush of year-end activity was big and we closed the year in Marin with a bang. Still many unsatisfied buyers out there. With equity coming back, sellers should be looking at 2013 as a great time to re-enter the market.
San Francisco – The Lombard manager reports that the fiscal cliff drama helped create a lot of year-end closing frenzy. More deals closed but more gray hairs for agents. Sellers were “snug in their beds” making the market seem “all quiet on the western front,” our Market Street manager says. However, buyers squeezed house hunting in with their holiday preparations, and those few homes that were accepting offers were inundated (one modest home in the Excelsior district had given out 42 disclosures at the time of this update, and had 3 offers in hand days before the official offer date).
Our Sunset office manager noted that sales are down but it is not due to lack of buyer demand. It is due to lack of inventory. The very few listings that had open houses were extremely busy.
SF Peninsula — Peninsula wide the inventory is extremely low: 10 active in Burlingame, 25 in San Mateo, two in Millbrae and three in Foster City. The buyers are waiting, agents are seeking news of any “off market” listing and everyone is praying for something to show to their waiting buyers. There are 35 active and 12 pending sales currently in Hillsborough. This reflects a lower inventory from a typical market of 65 listings through most of 2012. There were a lot of last minute end of year sales. Many were rushed due to uncertainty about taxes in 2013. There are certainly high-end buyers waiting for the expected new listings to come forth. It seems that the spring market will definitely kick off earlier than in most years. In Menlo Park, the local office was amazingly busy until Christmas day. Lots of closings before year ‘tax hike” end. Everyone has more buyers than sellers. The Redwood City-San Carlos market has been very quiet over the holidays. Woodside and Portola Valley got pretty sleepy at the end of the year. Agents have more buyers than sellers in general – properties available over $6 million are numerous however. Some deals to be made in that over $6 million market.
East Bay – The Berkeley office reports steady showings throughout December and even during the holidays. Agents are still writing offers and securing listings for early 2013. In the Lamorinda area, sales have declined slightly as inventory is extremely low. Sellers seemed to have been waiting until after the holidays to list their homes. According to our Walnut Creek manager, inventory is still low. Some sellers are waiting on the new year to list their homes. Buyers are still doing non-contingent deals and cash is still prevalent in winning offers.
NOVEMBER MARKET STATISTICS
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were up 5.6% year-over-year in November.
Home inventory continues to be abysmal. It was off 73% from last November.
The median price for homes jumped 23.4% year-over-year. The median price has been higher than the year before for the past ten months. The sales price to list price ratio has been over 100% for the past nine months. The average price for homes was up 19.2% year-over-year.
Pending home sales were down 6.9% year-over-year.
SALES MOMENTUM…
for homes rose 0.8 of a point to +4.
PRICING MOMENTUM…
has been on the up-swing the past nine months. It rose 1.8 points to +9.2.
CONDO STATISTICS… The median price for condos was up 43.6% year-over-year. That’s nine straight months of double-digit gains. Sales were off 4.5%, while pending sales fell 10.5%.
SALES MOMENTUM…
for homes rose 0.8 of a point to +4.
PRICING MOMENTUM…
has been on the up-swing the past nine months. It rose 1.8 points to +9.2.
CONDO STATISTICS… The median price for condos was up 43.6% year-over-year. That’s nine straight months of double-digit gains. Sales were off 4.5%, while pending sales fell 10.5%.
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